Adobe AIR: Why Adobe AIR will not be a success in the long run

Adobe AIRBefore you read any further, just know that I am a huge fan of AIR technology and applications created based on AIR. One of my favourite application is AIR iPhone and I also acknowledge that few of the most creative and innovative programmers are working on this technology and we will see eye catching and wonderful AIR applications in the time to come.

Now that you know I am not an anti-AIR.. Here is what I have to say….

Nintendo went back to basics with wii as far as the visual representation of the game goes and covered it up with state of art motion sensing technology and it worked for them. Now the question!

Is Adobe trying to do the same with software and internet technology what Nintendo did with the Games? I think the answer is “YES”. Let me explain…..

Google, IBM, Microsoft, Sun Microsystems, etc… are investing heavily in Cloud Computing which is what they call Future of Internet Technology. Cloud Computing is considered the next generation model where MOST of your information will be stored on the internet (Internet Cloud).

Imagine a day when you don’t have to carry CD’s, DVD’s or any other storage devices because you can store all your data online which is accessible from any computer and anywhere in the world. Now that’s what I call technology with no boundaries. In such a scenario who would like to install applications on the computer or a laptop and carry it around. That’s not Web 2’ish or may be Web 3.0 is it?

Let’s look at it from another perspective. How many jobs can this technology generate? 1000, 10000, 100000 but is that enough? How many graphic designers exist who specialize in Photoshop? How many PHP, ASP, Ruby, Python, etc… programmers exist today? Millions! Almost every other site is designed and programmed using one of these technologies.

Keeping these things in mind I do not think Adobe can bring applications back to the Desktop when all the other techno giants are trying to move away from a computer based model.

Now what do you think is the future of AIR?

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    Comments

    While I do believe storage in the Cloud is apart of the future so is a strain on bandwidth while communication companies struggle to keep pace with demand. AIR, and Google Gears, provide a means to deploy a hybrid Desktop-Web application that can drastically reduce the amount of bandwidth consumed to transmit redundant data.

    Its also apart of a larger mobile strategy by Adobe. AIR provides support for the in and out network connectivity that plague cell phones. Again, the reduced bandwidth w/ make mobile applications far more snappy.

    [...] less than a decade though according to Bruce Chizen.  We already have word processors, Wii style games and image management/editing which my grandmother and the lions share of all computer users [...]

    I think the Cloud idea is pretty cool, although, what do you guys think about the security concerns here?

    Matt

    Who says that AIR is just for desktop applications? Its also for the web applications. And why would not one want to have such desktop applications if he uses his laptop to connect every here and there.

    I think the Cloud idea is pretty cool, although, what do you guys think about the security concerns here?

    While I agree that "cloud computing" is a good concept in theory, it is still a long way off. Personally I don't want my financial records held by B.O.A. to be in the open, and yes I am aware they already could be.. I just don't want to know it :)

    The idea behind Adobe AIR is actually to leverage the cloud computing model if you think about it.. the data will most likely be stored remotely, while the terminal will be local.. oh wait, wasn't this already done in the past with SUN terminals? I think AIR has a place still, and no I am not just saying that because I am a developer.. I really think it will last.

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